Spot Silicon Metal Offers Rose, Centralized Module Price Center Shifted Downward [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM September 22:

Silicon Metal

Price

On Friday afternoon, silicon metal futures surged rapidly, with the SI2511 contract hitting a high of 9,310 yuan/mt and closing at 9,305 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt WoW. Some silicon enterprises showed positive sentiment toward supplying spot traders, and silicon suppliers raised their offers, with market sentiment changes being closely watched.

Production

In September, operating capacity in northern China increased compared to August, and national silicon metal production continued to rise.

Inventory

Social Inventory: As of September 18, SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 543,000 mt, up 4,000 mt WoW. This includes 120,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 1,000 mt WoW, and 423,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 3,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50.2-55 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 52.46 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon at 49-50 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable over the weekend. After downstream crystal pulling plants built up sufficient raw material inventories and prices rose last week, the market adopted a wait-and-see stance. Currently, low-priced resources are scarce, while high-priced resources face significant resistance, leading to market divergence.

Production

In September, polysilicon plants experienced both production increases and cuts, with overall production showing limited fluctuation MoM. October polysilicon production schedules are gradually being released, and currently, production cuts appear more likely.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has been on an upward trend, as crystal pulling plants have slowed their procurement pace. In the short term, polysilicon production may still exceed demand, leading to relatively high inventory pressure.

Module

Price

Recently, centralized module enterprises slightly lowered their offers as terminal projects began to decrease, with some projects yet to be bid on. Enterprise offers have dropped significantly compared to earlier periods. Current mainstream centralized module offers have fallen to between 0.65-0.66 yuan/W, with limited declines due to cost-side support. It is expected that bargaining sentiment will intensify further. Current distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.677 yuan/W, 0.697 yuan/W, and 0.682 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.662 yuan/W and 0.677 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

September module scheduled production is expected to decrease slightly from expectations, with some top-tier enterprises planning appropriate production cuts. Overall production in September is projected to be about 1 GW lower than expected.

Inventory

Weekly inventory, module inventory levels increased slightly over the past week, and module enterprises' orders on hand decreased.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 58,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 25,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices are 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Recently, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices have begun to loosen due to discounted spot orders from import sand traders. Crucible enterprises have strong bargaining sentiment, and mainstream transaction prices have started to decline, with further slight downside room expected.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises maintained stable operation, and overseas supply is expected to increase.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventory increased, crucible enterprises' purchase willingness began to decline recently, and demand side, wafer production schedule is limited with no support.

PV glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 19.5-21 yuan/m², prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 20.5-22 yuan/m², prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 12.7-14 yuan/m². Approaching the last week of September, domestic glass enterprises plan to discuss new order prices for October, currently aiming to increase by 0.5-1.0 yuan/m² from the September benchmark. The final transaction price is expected to be negotiated for a long time.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 13.7-15 yuan/m², prices stable.

Production

PV glass production in September is expected to drop slightly due to fewer production days, but under the influence of rising prices, recently built unlit kilns in China are planning to start production, and new capacity will be quickly implemented.

Inventory

Glass inventory increased slightly, market trading volume decreased somewhat over the past week, some previously verbally negotiated orders were partially withdrawn, and module plants began to consume their own inventory.